MARKET CONDITIONS

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LISBON MARKET ANALYSIS FINDINGS

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Very Preliminary Housing & Retail Estimates

The Chesapeake Group, Inc. has initiated work defining housing and retail opportunities for Lisbon and targeted areas like its Downtown. The estimates are very preliminary and will change substantially as the database grows. Necessary for projected future housing and commercial is input from a survey of area residents that focuses on retail spending and use and future housing needs.

All estimates are also considered conservative, likely to understate demand.

Preliminary Housing Unit Estimates

Two scenarios are presented for growth in housing units by 2030 for Lisbon. Both scenarios are defined as “market share” but are based on different growth assumptions for the County. Market share is an important economic concept implying “holding one’s own” or maintaining economic parody.

 

Within the context of the market share scenarios, a range of future housing or rooftop growth is anticipated. The very conservative, preliminary number of new “rooftops” added in Lisbon is 216 and 253. 

 

Table 1 - Market Share Concept Growth in Housing or Rooftop Estimates*

*Developed by The Chesapeake Group, Inc. 2021.

These estimates assume “market share.” A jurisdiction can grow beyond market share based on certain assumptions and changing land-use patterns within a large county or regional area. For example, areas with more significant amounts of underdeveloped land than other “built out” communities will capture more rooftops. 

Preliminary Growth in Supportable Space Estimates

The estimates of demand for retail goods and related services are based only on the growth in rooftops. Not included is even modest growth in household incomes that could accrue through demographic and employment changes. The estimates also exclude inflation.

 

Based on the anticipated growth in rooftops, Lisbon residents alone are expected to support an additional 36,000 square feet of new retail goods and services through an additional $11.7 million in spending by 2030. 
 

Table 2 - Lisbon Resident newly Generated Increase in Sales and Space*

*Developed by The Chesapeake Group, Inc. 2021.

No current business in Lisbon or any jurisdiction generally thrives or even survives without capturing patronage and related sales from non-residents. Therefore, there is also the potential to capture exported space by other residents of the County, particularly from the growth in rooftops elsewhere in the County. "Eat/Drink," or food services, "General Merchandise," and "Miscellaneous" retail are potentially three areas with capturable sales and space.  

 

The growth in rooftops within the County but outside of Lisbon will generate 320,000 square feet of new space at any and all locations. This space is in addition to the new space generated by Lisbon residents. Some of the sales and related space can be captured within Lisbon. 

 

Table 3 - Secondary Market Increase in Sales and Space*

*Developed by The Chesapeake Group, Inc. 2021.

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